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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 19 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT, AS WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA DIALS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has finally halted its plunge, after a devastating week of yet more losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ...
Tuesday, 18 January 11
MINISTRY SEEKS COAL FROM INDONESIA - SUNDAY OBSERVER
Sunday Observer reported that, Ministry of Power and Energy is to explore the possibilities of importing quality coal from Indonesia.
Minister Pa ...
Tuesday, 18 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT, AS WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA DIALS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has finally halted its plunge, after a devastating week of yet more losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ...
Sunday, 16 January 11
STANCHART GLOBAL RESEARCH SEES COAL PRICE RISING ON SUPPLY DISRUPTION - BURSA MALAYSIA MARKET NEWS
Bursa Malaysia Market News reported that, Standard Chartered Global Research has upgraded its 2011 forecasts for global thermal coal prices based on ...
Saturday, 15 January 11
SUPRAMAX VESSELS FIXED AROUND $ 8K FOR TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and has touched below 1,500 points with the cape index severely affected with the index touching 1,595 poin ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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