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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 19 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT, AS WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA DIALS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has finally halted its plunge, after a devastating week of yet more losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ...
Tuesday, 18 January 11
MINISTRY SEEKS COAL FROM INDONESIA - SUNDAY OBSERVER
Sunday Observer reported that, Ministry of Power and Energy is to explore the possibilities of importing quality coal from Indonesia.
Minister Pa ...
Tuesday, 18 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT, AS WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA DIALS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has finally halted its plunge, after a devastating week of yet more losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ...
Sunday, 16 January 11
STANCHART GLOBAL RESEARCH SEES COAL PRICE RISING ON SUPPLY DISRUPTION - BURSA MALAYSIA MARKET NEWS
Bursa Malaysia Market News reported that, Standard Chartered Global Research has upgraded its 2011 forecasts for global thermal coal prices based on ...
Saturday, 15 January 11
SUPRAMAX VESSELS FIXED AROUND $ 8K FOR TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and has touched below 1,500 points with the cape index severely affected with the index touching 1,595 poin ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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