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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 12 January 11
BULKER DELIVERIES WEIGHING IN ON FREIGHT RATES KEEPING SENTIMENT ON A NEGATIVE MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A flurry of new buildings still hitting the water has caught up for good with the freight market, with capesizes unable to weather the storm. With r ...
Tuesday, 11 January 11
SUPRAMAX TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA US$ 8,000 PER DAY
Despite continued growth in the bulk trades, the delivery of new vessels is beginning to take its toll. The BDI continued its decline, finishing las ...
Tuesday, 11 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s benchmark index, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) lost further ground in the beginning of the week, following the trend of the ...
Monday, 10 January 11
MINING INVESTMENT TARGET TOO LOW - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, the Indonesian Mining Association’s executive director, Priyo Pribadi, believes the government’s invest ...
Monday, 10 January 11
COAL MONGOLIA IS INVITING YOU TO THE INTERNATIONAL COAL SECTOR INVESTORS CONFERENCE
COALspot.com - (Press Release) - The Coal Mongolian Conference will take place at Chinggis Hotel, in Ulaanbaatar on 24-25, Feb 2011. The coal bonanz ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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