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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 10 January 11
DEWA SEEKS ADVICE ON COAL POWER PROJECT -THE NATIONAL
The Dubai utility company gets nine bids from international groups for consultancy role.
The National reported that, Dubai's utility company wil ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
COAL PRICE WILL RISE IN SHORT-TERM DUE TO AUSTRALIA FLOODS - ALBUQUERQUE EXPRESS
Albuquerque Express reported that, Queensland’s mining minister, Stephen Robertson, has warned that the Australian state’s coal mines wi ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
THE INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS JUMPED 8.69 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the January 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for thermal ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
SUPRAMAX VESSELS WERE FIXED AT AROUND $ 9000 PD FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The holiday season affect combined with severe flooding in Queensland ports continues to keep the market and pressure. “Suprama ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
DIFFICULT YEAR FOR SHIPPING - TRANSPORT WEEKLY
Transport Weekly reported that, Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) chairman Sabyasachi Hajara says 2011 will be a difficult year because an excess ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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