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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 07 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET ON A FREEFALL, AS THE NEW YEAR EARLY DAYS DONT BRING MANY CHEERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is facing its worst slump in more than two years, falling by 4.75% yesterday to reach 1,544 points, on top of an additional 4.2% ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
OVERSEAS & GENERAL SIGNS AGREEMENT TO EXPAND FOOTPRINT ON COAL LEASE IN INDONESIA - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Overseas & General (ASX: OGL) has entered into a joint operating agreement on the Jambi Coal Lease in Sumatra ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
BANPU EXPECTS ROSY 2011 AS COAL PRICES SKYROCKET - BANGKOK POST
Bangkok Post reported that, Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, expects minimal impact from the production stoppage at its Daning mine in China ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
COKING COAL CONTRACT PRICE MAY RISE 33% ON AUSTRALIAN FLOODS - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Steelmakers in Asia may be forced to pay as much as 33 percent more for hard coking coal after the worst floods in 50 years ...
Wednesday, 05 January 11
HIGHER COAL PRICES LIFT UP COAL STOCKS
Thermal coal price this month has gone up 5.63% to US$127.70 per ton today from mid last month at US$120.89 per ton.
Thermal coal price for next ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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