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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bul ...
Monday, 03 January 11
TAXATION FOR COAL MINING COMPANIES IN INDONESIA - A TAX EXPERTS VIEW
COALspot.com - Mrs. Sri Wahyuni Sujono, managing partner of SF Consulting has wrote an exclusive report regarding taxation for coal mining companies ...
Sunday, 02 January 11
JAISWAL TO SEEK COAL MINES IN AFRICA - HINDUSTAN TIMES
Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal will talk with his counterparts in South Africa and Mozambique during his visit from January 5 to secure coal asset ...
Saturday, 01 January 11
COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED 340 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian coal miners expect to produce 340 million tons of coal in 2011, an increase of 23 percent from 275 millio ...
Friday, 31 December 10
STC TO FINALIZE 12 MILLION MT OF COAL IMPORT CONTRACT TO TWO INDIAN AND A DUBAI BASED COAL TRADER - SOURCES
COALspot.com - World's single largest coal import tender floated by STC on behalf of state utility NTPC to finalize its suppliers or already finali ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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