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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 30 December 10
DRY BULK MARKET STAYS SUBDUED AT THE END OF 2010 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dy bulk market failed to cheer ship owners across the board as the year draws to an end, thus bringing mixed feelings ahead of 2011. On one hand ...
Thursday, 30 December 10
KANGAROO RESOURCES BUYS INDONESIAN COAL COMPANY
Australian-listed Kangaroo Resources Ltd. said Wednesday it will buy 99% of the Pakar thermal coal project in East Kalimantan, for A$277 million thr ...
Wednesday, 29 December 10
WEATHER IMPACTS RIO TINTO COAL AUSTRALIAS QUEENSLAND OPERATIONS
Press Release - As a result of severe monsoonal rain in central and northern Queensland, force majeure has been declared on coal sales contracts fro ...
Monday, 27 December 10
ANALYSIS: CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION MISMATCHED WITH DOMESTIC DEMAND
As reported by iStock Analyst, China's coal market has been trapped in a strange cycle. Large coal production bases are facing overcapacity, while ...
Monday, 27 December 10
HUNT FOR OVERSEAS COAL ASSETS TO INTENSIFY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Financial Express reported that, With the Indian economy back on the track after the slowdown, merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the re ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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