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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 23 December 10
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES CLOSES STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN ASPIRE MINING LIMITED
Press Release – SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878), announced today that it has completed the private placement with Aspire Mining ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
CESC EYES COAL MINES IN INDONESIA, S AFRICA - TEHELKA
Company has already set a target of adding 6,000 MW power generation by the end of the 12th Plan in 2017
Tehelka reported that, CESC Ltd, the fla ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
SANTA CLAUSE DID NOT COME EARLY THIS YEAR - FEARNBULK
Handy
Not much fresh enquiry this week and quite dead in Bl.Sea/Med. Nevertheless ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
STERLITE ENERGY LIMITED TO BUY 0.6 MLN MT OF COAL FOR 2011
COALspot.com - Sterlite Energy Limited (SEL) is a part of Vedanta Resources plc , a London listed FTSE 100 diversified metals and mining major with ...
Wednesday, 22 December 10
PEABODY ENERGY TO SOURCE INDONESIAN COAL FROM PT SUPRA BARA ENERGI (SBE) - COAL GEOLOGY
Coal Geology reported that, Peabody Energy has entered into an agreement to source coal from PT Supra Bara Energi (SBE), which will be sold on the e ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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