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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 December 10
RIO TINTO EYES AUSTRALIAN COAL MINER - RTE NEWS
Global resources giant Rio Tinto has made a $3.9 billion bid for Australian coal miner Riversdale.
RTE News reported that, Global resources giant ...
Sunday, 26 December 10
ANGLO SELLS AUSTRALIAN COAL ASSETS - BARCELONA NEWS
Barcelona News reported that, Anglo American has sold off undeveloped Australia coal assets for $577 million.
The global resources giant ha ...
Saturday, 25 December 10
FREIGHT MARKET - LOWEST FIXTURES REPORTED SINCE MID 2009 - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year 2011.
The holiday season seems to have severely affected the fr ...
Friday, 24 December 10
CIL SHORTLISTS 21 FIRMS TO IMPORT 250 MT COAL - THE HINDU
The Hindu reported that, Coal India plans to import about 250 million tonnes (mt) over the next 10 years to meet the country's growing requirement. ...
Friday, 24 December 10
DRY BULK OWNERS COULD SOON RECONSIDER SCRAPPING OLDER VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market close to its lowest levels in months and indeed close to 2010 lows, ship owners could be heading towards scrapyards in a bi ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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