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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 22 January 11
POSSIBLE COAL EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO AFFECT CHURCHILL MINING - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Churchill Mining moved to reassure investors after a fall in its share price, stating that from talks with the au ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
INDONESIA MAY BAN LOW-QUALITY COAL EXPORTS FROM 2014 - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, The Indonesian government plans to ban exports of coal with an energy value of less than 5,600 kilocalories a kilogram star ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
SUPRAS ARE DOING USD 7- 8K FOR INDONESIA-INDIA - FEARNBULK
Handy
Negative sentiment for forward positions in the Atlantic market due to lack of cargo availability and too many ballasters from the East. Con ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
ITMG TARGETS TO PRODUCE 25 MILLION TONS OF COAL THIS YEAR - BISNIS INDONESIA
Bisnis Indonesia reported that, Coal producer PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) targets to produce 25 million tons of coal this year, a 13. ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
DRY BULK MARKETS FALL SEES NO END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Pundits indicating that the dry bulk market’s sentiment remains weak were justified, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ( ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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