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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 22 January 11
POSSIBLE COAL EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO AFFECT CHURCHILL MINING - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Churchill Mining moved to reassure investors after a fall in its share price, stating that from talks with the au ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
INDONESIA MAY BAN LOW-QUALITY COAL EXPORTS FROM 2014 - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, The Indonesian government plans to ban exports of coal with an energy value of less than 5,600 kilocalories a kilogram star ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
SUPRAS ARE DOING USD 7- 8K FOR INDONESIA-INDIA - FEARNBULK
Handy
Negative sentiment for forward positions in the Atlantic market due to lack of cargo availability and too many ballasters from the East. Con ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
ITMG TARGETS TO PRODUCE 25 MILLION TONS OF COAL THIS YEAR - BISNIS INDONESIA
Bisnis Indonesia reported that, Coal producer PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) targets to produce 25 million tons of coal this year, a 13. ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
DRY BULK MARKETS FALL SEES NO END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Pundits indicating that the dry bulk market’s sentiment remains weak were justified, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ( ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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