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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 25 January 11
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO TUMBLE LAST WEEK - BRS
With weather-related problems affecting the short-term outlook, and new building deliveries the longer-term picture, dry bulk rates continued to tum ...
Tuesday, 25 January 11
R-POWER TO INVEST $5BN IN INDONESIA - THE TIMES OF INDIA
The Times of India reported that, In what is being seen as one of the largest foreign investments in Indonesia, Reliance Power will infuse $5 billio ...
Monday, 24 January 11
GOVT PROMISES COAL FOR PLN DESPITE PRICE SPIKES - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the government says state electricity company PT PLN will receive enough coal to fire its power plants, despite pric ...
Monday, 24 January 11
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNTURN SEES NO RELIEF - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept falling for yet another week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing an additional 4.79 ...
Sunday, 23 January 11
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATE FOR CAPE SIZE VESSELS WAS AT $ 8,859 PD ALMOST CLOSE TO 2008 LOWS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1,370 points. “ In May 2010 the BDI touched ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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