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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 02 February 11
BAYAN TO SUPPLY COAL TO TP UTILITIES LTD
Insider Stories has reportd that, Indonesia's one of the leading coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) owned by businessman Dato' Low Tuck ...
Monday, 31 January 11
S. SUMATRA COAL RAILWAY TO BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, despite land acquisition problems, state coal mining company PT Bukit Asam is upbeat that the development of a railw ...
Monday, 31 January 11
COAL MINER PTBA TO DRIVE OUTPUT WITH ACQUISITIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, State coal company Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam said its output would increase 34 percent to 17.6 million ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
PRESSURE ON SHIPPING MARKET MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MID FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1370 points.
In May 2010 the BDI touched 4,209 ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
ANTAM ACQUIRES SAROLANGUN COAL MINING
According to Insider Stories, Nickel and gold miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) of Indonesia via its subsidiary PT Indonesia Coal Resources (ICR) h ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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