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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 02 February 11
BAYAN TO SUPPLY COAL TO TP UTILITIES LTD
Insider Stories has reportd that, Indonesia's one of the leading coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) owned by businessman Dato' Low Tuck ...
Monday, 31 January 11
S. SUMATRA COAL RAILWAY TO BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, despite land acquisition problems, state coal mining company PT Bukit Asam is upbeat that the development of a railw ...
Monday, 31 January 11
COAL MINER PTBA TO DRIVE OUTPUT WITH ACQUISITIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, State coal company Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam said its output would increase 34 percent to 17.6 million ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
PRESSURE ON SHIPPING MARKET MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MID FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1370 points.
In May 2010 the BDI touched 4,209 ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
ANTAM ACQUIRES SAROLANGUN COAL MINING
According to Insider Stories, Nickel and gold miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) of Indonesia via its subsidiary PT Indonesia Coal Resources (ICR) h ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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