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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 07 February 11
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL EXPORTS SURGE, BUOYED BY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA AND INDIA
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) announced today that 2010 exports have exceeded the last two years’ performance, said in a re ...
Monday, 07 February 11
RBCT SHIPPED 28.67 PERCENT LESS COAL IN JANUARY
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 4,389,925 MT of coal in January 20 ...
Sunday, 06 February 11
THE PANAMAX & SUPRAMAX FUTURES FOR 2011-2013 WAS AT AROUND US$ 16,500 & US$ 15,000 PER DAY RESPECTIVELY
COALspot.com - With the Chinese new year holidays this week, the market has been fairly quite as expected.
The BDI saw a bigger drop compared to ...
Saturday, 05 February 11
INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER HAS SIGNED A DECREE FOR COAL TRANSPORTATION PERMITS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com - Minister of Energy, Darwin Minister Saleh said, that, he had signed a decree for transportation and sale of coal, which was the ...
Saturday, 05 February 11
ANCHORAGE LOADING POINT MOVED TO MUARA JAWA
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Transportation Republic Indonesia has announced that, the loading point at Muara Berau, East kalimantan h ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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