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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 08 February 11
PUSTAKA JAYA PALU POWER LOOKING FOR 5800 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - According to market information, PT Pustaka Jaya Palu Power, a power plant operator of the Mpanau plant, Palu, Sulawesi has invited c ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
BAYAN, KANGAROO EXTEND DUE DILIGENCE
Coal miner controlled by businessman Dato' Low Tuck Kwong PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) and Australia-listed coal company Kangaroo Resources Limite ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
DRY BULK: IS THE TIDE TURNING? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what could be perceived as a change of market sentiment for the better, the dry bulk industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) poste ...
Monday, 07 February 11
THE INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS JUMPED 13.03 PERCENT IN FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the February 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for therma ...
Monday, 07 February 11
COAL PRICES ON RISE: DEMAND FROM INDIA AND CHINA - ANALYZED SUNIL K KUMBHAT
INDONESIA IS HEART OF ASIAN COAL BOOM
COALspot.com - Rising demand of Coal from India and China, coupled with global financial recovery, is driv ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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