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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 11 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET HEATING UP ON FRESH CARGO DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is on a high this week, with owners of smaller vessels turning their attention towards the spot market, in order to take advanta ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
SUPRA RATES IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER US$ 6K BSS N. CHINA DELIVERY FOR INDO-INDIA AND THAILAND ROUNDS - FEARNBULK
Handy
Atl is still weak with little fresh enquiry and an accumulation of spot tonnage.Owners are reluctant to send tonnage thru Suez due to uncert ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
BUKIT ASAM EXPECTS ABOVE RP 3 TRIO PROFIT
The state-owned coal miner PT Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to reach 2011's net profit above Rp 3 trillion (US$ 336,322,568) from above Rp2 ...
Wednesday, 09 February 11
INDONESIA ALLOWED 60 COAL TRADING COMPANIES TO EXPORT COAL
COALspot.com - A temporary ban imposed on coal traders in January has lifted this week. As of today 60coal trading companies were allowed to resume ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
INDIA'S SIMHAPURU TARGETS S.AFRICAN COAL - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, India's Simhapuri Energy , a unit of the Madhucon Group , wants to buy new or existing collieries in South Africa fro ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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