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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 04 February 11
PERTAMINA DENIES KAREN AGUSTIAWAN RESIGNS FROM PERTAMINA
COALspot.com - The President Director of PT Pertamina, Karen Agustiawan reportedly will replace Darwin Saleh as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resou ...
Friday, 04 February 11
ADARO ENERGY FY10 COAL SALES UP 6 PERCENT TO 43.84 MILLION
As reported by insider stories, Indonesian coal miners PT Adaro Energy Tbk has produced 42.20 million tons of coal in 2010, a 4 percent increase com ...
Thursday, 03 February 11
MERCATOR LINES TO INVEST RS 200-250 CRORE ON COAL MINE IN INDONESIA - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, Mercator Lines, the HK Mittal-controlled shipping-to-mines major, will invest about 200-250 crore (US$ 43.825 - 54.781 ...
Thursday, 03 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS SET TO BOTTOM OUT NIKOS - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market having lost more than 72% of its value in the last month or so and having retreated to a 2-year low, it seems that the bott ...
Wednesday, 02 February 11
INDONESIA MAY MISS COAL EXPORT TARGET IN 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian Trade ministry has instructed independent surveyors temporarily not to issue pre-shipment survey report (LS) to the compan ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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