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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 04 February 11
PERTAMINA DENIES KAREN AGUSTIAWAN RESIGNS FROM PERTAMINA
COALspot.com - The President Director of PT Pertamina, Karen Agustiawan reportedly will replace Darwin Saleh as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resou ...
Friday, 04 February 11
ADARO ENERGY FY10 COAL SALES UP 6 PERCENT TO 43.84 MILLION
As reported by insider stories, Indonesian coal miners PT Adaro Energy Tbk has produced 42.20 million tons of coal in 2010, a 4 percent increase com ...
Thursday, 03 February 11
MERCATOR LINES TO INVEST RS 200-250 CRORE ON COAL MINE IN INDONESIA - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, Mercator Lines, the HK Mittal-controlled shipping-to-mines major, will invest about 200-250 crore (US$ 43.825 - 54.781 ...
Thursday, 03 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS SET TO BOTTOM OUT NIKOS - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market having lost more than 72% of its value in the last month or so and having retreated to a 2-year low, it seems that the bott ...
Wednesday, 02 February 11
INDONESIA MAY MISS COAL EXPORT TARGET IN 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian Trade ministry has instructed independent surveyors temporarily not to issue pre-shipment survey report (LS) to the compan ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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