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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Wednesday, 29 April 09
NEW GOV'T REGULATION SHOULD INCORPORATE CONFLICT SETTLEMENT BODY - ICMA (MAJALAH TAMBANG)
A draft government regulation on mineral and coal is currently in a process of completion. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) proposed th ...
Tuesday, 28 April 09
S'PORE COURT RULES AGAINST DEUTSCHE ON ASSET SALE - REUTERS
Singapore's highest court has ruled that Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) may have to pay unspecified damages to an investment firm as it did not get the b ...
Tuesday, 28 April 09
WORLD THERMAL COAL PRICE EXPECTED TO CRASH - PURCHASING.COM
Macquarie Bank sees 50% drop to $60/ton in 2009
Macquarie Bank today forecast the 2009 average market price for world thermal coal at $60/ton, a ...
Tuesday, 28 April 09
THAI LANNA TO OPEN NEW INDONESIAN MINE BY Q3 - REUTERS
Thailand's Lanna Resources PCL LANN.BK said on Monday it planned to open a new coal mine in Indonesia by the third quarter of 2009 with an initial ...
Tuesday, 28 April 09
SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORT COAL RETREATS ON WEAKER EUROPEAN DEMAND - BLOOMBERG
Prices for coal shipped from South Africa’s Richards Bay, site of the world’s largest export terminal for the fuel, fell for a second co ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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