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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Wednesday, 29 April 09
NEW GOV'T REGULATION SHOULD INCORPORATE CONFLICT SETTLEMENT BODY - ICMA (MAJALAH TAMBANG)
A draft government regulation on mineral and coal is currently in a process of completion. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) proposed th ...
Tuesday, 28 April 09
S'PORE COURT RULES AGAINST DEUTSCHE ON ASSET SALE - REUTERS
Singapore's highest court has ruled that Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) may have to pay unspecified damages to an investment firm as it did not get the b ...
Tuesday, 28 April 09
WORLD THERMAL COAL PRICE EXPECTED TO CRASH - PURCHASING.COM
Macquarie Bank sees 50% drop to $60/ton in 2009
Macquarie Bank today forecast the 2009 average market price for world thermal coal at $60/ton, a ...
Tuesday, 28 April 09
THAI LANNA TO OPEN NEW INDONESIAN MINE BY Q3 - REUTERS
Thailand's Lanna Resources PCL LANN.BK said on Monday it planned to open a new coal mine in Indonesia by the third quarter of 2009 with an initial ...
Tuesday, 28 April 09
SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORT COAL RETREATS ON WEAKER EUROPEAN DEMAND - BLOOMBERG
Prices for coal shipped from South Africa’s Richards Bay, site of the world’s largest export terminal for the fuel, fell for a second co ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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