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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Tuesday, 05 May 09
NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS INCREASE - BLOOMBERG
COAL shipments from Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel, rose 18 percent last week while the numb ...
Tuesday, 05 May 09
INDONESIA'S ADARO PAYS $78.6 MLN FOR COAL-BARGING FIRM - REUTERS
INDONESIA's largest coal producer by market value, PT Adaro Energy Tbk, said late on Monday it paid $78.6 million for a 74 percent stake in Orchard ...
Tuesday, 05 May 09
PHILIPPINES SEMIRARA STILL EXPECTS HIKE IN COAL SALES - BUSINESS MIRROR
DESPITE the anticipated soft demand resulting from the prevailing global financial crisis, the country’s largest coal producer Semirara Mining ...
Monday, 04 May 09
VISTAAR SINGAPORE SAYS, THIS MONTH DRY BULK FREIGHT LIKELY TO COME DOWN
COALspot.com (Singapore) - VISTAAR shipping Services Pte Limited of Singapore, said, the beginning of last week started with bit of weakness an ...
Monday, 04 May 09
PNOC-EC TO GROW COAL OPERATIONS - PHILIPPINE DAILY INQUIRER
LISTED firm Philippine National Oil Co.-Exploration Corp. plans to expand its operations this year to ensure the steady supply of coal and fur ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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