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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Saturday, 02 May 09
BUMI'S FIRST-QUARTER PROFIT RISES 21% ON COAL PRICE - BLOOMBERG
PT BUMI RESOURCES, Asia’s biggest exporter of power-station coal, said first-quarter profit rose 21 percent after it earned higher prices for ...
Saturday, 02 May 09
COAL PRICES TO RISE ON CHINESE SUPPLY, INDIAN DEMAND, UBS SAYS
Peter Hickson, an analyst with UBS AG in London, comments on prices for thermal coal, burned to generate power. He commented in a report today.
& ...
Friday, 01 May 09
DEUTSCHE, BECKKETT CLAIMING ADARO WIN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Both Deutsche Bank AG and Beckkett, an investment firm controlled by Indonesian tycoon Sukanto Tanoto, claimed victory on Tuesday after Singapore&rs ...
Thursday, 30 April 09
SAN MIGUEL IN TALKS TO BUY STAKE IN ADARO - REUTERS
San Miguel Corp is in talks to buy a stake worth about $500 million in Adaro Energy , Indonesia's largest coal producer by market value, the Philip ...
Wednesday, 29 April 09
BAYAN READY TO OPERATE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL QUALITY IMPROVEMENT FACILITY - MAJALAH TAMBANG
PT. Bayan Resources Tbk. (hereinafter referred to as Bayan), an Indonesian coal manufacturer, announced that they are ready to operate the world's ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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