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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Saturday, 02 May 09
BUMI'S FIRST-QUARTER PROFIT RISES 21% ON COAL PRICE - BLOOMBERG
PT BUMI RESOURCES, Asia’s biggest exporter of power-station coal, said first-quarter profit rose 21 percent after it earned higher prices for ...
Saturday, 02 May 09
COAL PRICES TO RISE ON CHINESE SUPPLY, INDIAN DEMAND, UBS SAYS
Peter Hickson, an analyst with UBS AG in London, comments on prices for thermal coal, burned to generate power. He commented in a report today.
& ...
Friday, 01 May 09
DEUTSCHE, BECKKETT CLAIMING ADARO WIN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Both Deutsche Bank AG and Beckkett, an investment firm controlled by Indonesian tycoon Sukanto Tanoto, claimed victory on Tuesday after Singapore&rs ...
Thursday, 30 April 09
SAN MIGUEL IN TALKS TO BUY STAKE IN ADARO - REUTERS
San Miguel Corp is in talks to buy a stake worth about $500 million in Adaro Energy , Indonesia's largest coal producer by market value, the Philip ...
Wednesday, 29 April 09
BAYAN READY TO OPERATE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL QUALITY IMPROVEMENT FACILITY - MAJALAH TAMBANG
PT. Bayan Resources Tbk. (hereinafter referred to as Bayan), an Indonesian coal manufacturer, announced that they are ready to operate the world's ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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