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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Monday, 27 April 09
INDONESIA S.KALIMANTAN GETS COAL TRUCKS OFF PUBLIC ROADS - REUTERS
A local government in one of Indonesia's top coal-producing areas has banned coal and palm oil firms from using public roads because of the damage ...
Monday, 27 April 09
JSW ENERGY SET TO SNAP UP AFRICAN COAL MINE FOR $70 MN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Energy is close to acquiring a sub-Saharan African thermal coal mine, which has reserves of more than 200 million ...
Monday, 27 April 09
INDONESIA MINING RULES MAY DETER INVESTORS-OFFICIALS - REUTERS
Indonesia's rules on foreign divestment of mining projects must be revised to address issues such as finding buyers if Southeast Asia's biggest ec ...
Monday, 27 April 09
UNDERGROUND MINING IN FOREST AREAS NOT SO SIMPLE - THE JAKARTA POST
The government's plan to issue a presidential decree allowing mining companies to mine underground in protected forest concession areas has resulte ...
Sunday, 26 April 09
MITRA HOPES TO SECURE DEALS WITH TWO COAL FIRMS BY JUNE - THE JAKARTA POST
An integrated oil and gas services company, publicly listed PT Mitra Rajasa, is expecting to seal acquisition deals with two coal companies in June, ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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