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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Monday, 27 April 09
INDONESIA S.KALIMANTAN GETS COAL TRUCKS OFF PUBLIC ROADS - REUTERS
A local government in one of Indonesia's top coal-producing areas has banned coal and palm oil firms from using public roads because of the damage ...
Monday, 27 April 09
JSW ENERGY SET TO SNAP UP AFRICAN COAL MINE FOR $70 MN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Energy is close to acquiring a sub-Saharan African thermal coal mine, which has reserves of more than 200 million ...
Monday, 27 April 09
INDONESIA MINING RULES MAY DETER INVESTORS-OFFICIALS - REUTERS
Indonesia's rules on foreign divestment of mining projects must be revised to address issues such as finding buyers if Southeast Asia's biggest ec ...
Monday, 27 April 09
UNDERGROUND MINING IN FOREST AREAS NOT SO SIMPLE - THE JAKARTA POST
The government's plan to issue a presidential decree allowing mining companies to mine underground in protected forest concession areas has resulte ...
Sunday, 26 April 09
MITRA HOPES TO SECURE DEALS WITH TWO COAL FIRMS BY JUNE - THE JAKARTA POST
An integrated oil and gas services company, publicly listed PT Mitra Rajasa, is expecting to seal acquisition deals with two coal companies in June, ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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