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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Monday, 27 April 09
INDONESIA S.KALIMANTAN GETS COAL TRUCKS OFF PUBLIC ROADS - REUTERS
A local government in one of Indonesia's top coal-producing areas has banned coal and palm oil firms from using public roads because of the damage ...
Monday, 27 April 09
JSW ENERGY SET TO SNAP UP AFRICAN COAL MINE FOR $70 MN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Energy is close to acquiring a sub-Saharan African thermal coal mine, which has reserves of more than 200 million ...
Monday, 27 April 09
INDONESIA MINING RULES MAY DETER INVESTORS-OFFICIALS - REUTERS
Indonesia's rules on foreign divestment of mining projects must be revised to address issues such as finding buyers if Southeast Asia's biggest ec ...
Monday, 27 April 09
UNDERGROUND MINING IN FOREST AREAS NOT SO SIMPLE - THE JAKARTA POST
The government's plan to issue a presidential decree allowing mining companies to mine underground in protected forest concession areas has resulte ...
Sunday, 26 April 09
MITRA HOPES TO SECURE DEALS WITH TWO COAL FIRMS BY JUNE - THE JAKARTA POST
An integrated oil and gas services company, publicly listed PT Mitra Rajasa, is expecting to seal acquisition deals with two coal companies in June, ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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