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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Sunday, 26 April 09
INDONESIAN GOVT SAYS COAL MINES CAUSE WEEKLONG FLOOD - THE JAKARTA POST
Samarinda administration in East Kalimantan admitted openly Thursday that the weeklong flood that paralyzed the city was caused by unruly management ...
Saturday, 25 April 09
FOREIGN SHARE DIVESTMENT STARTING THE 6TH YEAR OF PRODUCTION - MAJALAH TAMBANG
The government would set a divestment scheme for foreign miners, which would require companies to divest their ownership starting the 6th year of pr ...
Saturday, 25 April 09
INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH ALLOCATED USD 126 MILLION FOR CAPITAL SPENDING - MAJALAH TAMBANG
Somyot Ruchirawat, President Director of PT Indo Tambangraya Megah, Tbk (ITMG), has announced the company's total dividend payment of Rp 1,345 per ...
Saturday, 25 April 09
MINING SECTOR IS STILL ON THE SURPLUS - THE JAKARTA POST
The global financial crisis is apparently also having an impact on the mining sector. People are thinking twice about investing in the mining sector ...
Saturday, 25 April 09
ADARO RUNS CATARACT OPERATION PROGRAM - THE JAKARTA POST
As part of its CSR program, thermal coal producer PT Adaro Indonesia has made cataract operations available to residents of Tandjung district, South ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
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