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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Sunday, 26 April 09
INDONESIAN GOVT SAYS COAL MINES CAUSE WEEKLONG FLOOD - THE JAKARTA POST
Samarinda administration in East Kalimantan admitted openly Thursday that the weeklong flood that paralyzed the city was caused by unruly management ...
Saturday, 25 April 09
FOREIGN SHARE DIVESTMENT STARTING THE 6TH YEAR OF PRODUCTION - MAJALAH TAMBANG
The government would set a divestment scheme for foreign miners, which would require companies to divest their ownership starting the 6th year of pr ...
Saturday, 25 April 09
INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH ALLOCATED USD 126 MILLION FOR CAPITAL SPENDING - MAJALAH TAMBANG
Somyot Ruchirawat, President Director of PT Indo Tambangraya Megah, Tbk (ITMG), has announced the company's total dividend payment of Rp 1,345 per ...
Saturday, 25 April 09
MINING SECTOR IS STILL ON THE SURPLUS - THE JAKARTA POST
The global financial crisis is apparently also having an impact on the mining sector. People are thinking twice about investing in the mining sector ...
Saturday, 25 April 09
ADARO RUNS CATARACT OPERATION PROGRAM - THE JAKARTA POST
As part of its CSR program, thermal coal producer PT Adaro Indonesia has made cataract operations available to residents of Tandjung district, South ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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