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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Tuesday, 21 April 09
INDONESIAN GOVT TO ALLOW UNDERGROUND MINING IN PROTECTED FORESTS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government will issue a regulation allowing mining companies to carry out underground mining in protected forests.
"This regulation will ...
Tuesday, 21 April 09
INDONESIAN GOVT LIKELY TO MISS INVESTMENT TARGETS FOR ENERGY, MINING - THE JAKARTA POST
The total value of investments in energy and mining sectors by the end of the year is likely to be below the government’s target, as a result of ...
Monday, 20 April 09
INDONESIAN COAL MINING ASSOCIATION CALLED TO CONTROL MINERS - MAJALA TAMBANG
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) is called to expand its membership further in view of controlling the conduct of miners in the nationa ...
Monday, 20 April 09
BANPU PLANS TO SHIP 2 MLN T COAL TO CHINA IN 09 - REUTERS
Banpu, Thailand's largest coal miner, plans to increase coal shipments to China by about 30 percent to 2 million tonnes in 2009, company officials ...
Monday, 20 April 09
INDO TAMBANGRAYA 2009 OUTPUT TO GO UP 16% - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's third largest coal producer, publicly listed PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITM), is targeting to raise production by 16 percent this year ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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