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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Monday, 13 April 09
INDIA'S NTPC FOURTH-QUARTER PROFIT RISES 30% ON POWER OUTPUT - BLOOMBERG
NTPC Ltd., India’s biggest electricity generator, said profit rose 30 percent in the fourth quarter after higher efficiency helped production. ...
Thursday, 09 April 09
INDONESIAN CILACAP, FISHERMEN PROTEST COAL BARGES ANCHORING IN BAY - THE JAKARTA POST
Fishermen in Cilacap, Central Java, have protested against the presence of dozens of coal barges lying at anchor in Teluk Penyu Bay, claiming they a ...
Thursday, 09 April 09
INDONESIA'S PLN (STATE ELECTRICITY COMPANY) TO SET POWER PURCHASE PRICES FOR INDEPENDENT PRODUCERS - THE JAKARTA POST
State power company PT PLN holds the mandate to set power purchase prices to buy electricity produced by its (IPP) business partners, aiming at flex ...
Wednesday, 08 April 09
ARCELORMITTAL BUYS STAKE IN COAL OF AFRICA - MINEWEB
Steel maker, ArcelorMittal SA, has acquired a 16.3 percent stake in Coal of Africa Ltd. for $44.98 million in cash.
ArcelorMittal SA, the South A ...
Wednesday, 08 April 09
EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL PORT FALL ON STORM -MINING-JOURNAL
Coal exports from Australia's Newcastle port, the world's largest coal export terminal, fell roughly 18% last week to a 4½-month low, as ro ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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