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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Wednesday, 01 April 09
COAL FIRMS' PROFITS NOT EXPECTED TO GROW IN '09 - - THE JAKARTA POST (ANALYSTS)
Despite their windfall profits in 2008, analysts doubt that PT Bumi Resources Tbk or any other coal firms will post profit growth this year, with pr ...
Tuesday, 31 March 09
DEUTSCHE BANK TO ADD COAL, GAS, SHIPPING IN COMMODITY EXPANSION - BLOOMBERG
Deutsche Bank AG, after quadrupling revenue from commodities in two years, plans to add coal, European natural-gas and shipping to its business, ant ...
Monday, 30 March 09
CHINA SHENHUA SAYS AGREES DOMESTIC COAL DEALS - REUTERS
Chinese coal mining giant China Shenhua Energy Co has agreed long-term contracts with some Chinese power producers, its President Ling Wen said on M ...
Sunday, 29 March 09
SHENHUA ENERGY 2008 NET RISES 29% TO RECORD ON PRICES - BLOOMBERG
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd., the nation’s biggest coal producer, said profit rose 29 percent to a record in 2008 after it increased productio ...
Friday, 27 March 09
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2009, BUT RAIL WILL DETERMINE BY HOW MUCH - MININGWEEKLY
South Africa has an expanding coal-export terminal, but an uncertain rail capacity.
The mismatch is something South Africa cannot afford, given i ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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