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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Monday, 23 March 09
STRAITS TO SELL STAKE IN COAL ASSETS TO PTT -THEAUSTRALIAN.NEWS.COM
STRAITS Resources will sell a 60 per cent stake in its Indonesian coal assets to Thailand's PTT International Co. for $US335 million.
The transa ...
Monday, 23 March 09
BMA TAKES 60 PCT CUT IN JAPAN COKING COAL PRICE-CITI - REUTERS
BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), the world's top coking coal exporter, has agreed to accept a discount of around 60 percent for the steel-ma ...
Sunday, 22 March 09
SHENHUA ENERGY'S 2009 COAL PRODUCTION MAY GAIN 8% - BLOOMBERG
China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation’s biggest coal producer, may increase production of the energy fuel by about 8 percent this year, slower ...
Friday, 20 March 09
INDONESIA ORDERS TEMPORARY HALT AT BAYAN COAL MINE - REUTERS
Indonesia has ordered a coal mining unit of PT Bayan Resources to temporarily stop production for operating outside approved areas, a government off ...
Friday, 20 March 09
COKING-COAL PRICE STRUCK AT $115-$125, CITIGROUP SAYS - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest miner, agreed with Nippon Steel Corp. to benchmark coking coal prices of $115 to $125 a metric ton, Cit ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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