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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Monday, 16 March 09
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM RECORDS 135% GAIN IN NET PROFIT FOR 2008 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Indonesia's state-owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk said its net profit jumped 135 percent last year, having sold more coal at hi ...
Saturday, 14 March 09
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM TO IMPORT COAL NEXT MONTH TO EASE SHORTAGE - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, National Aluminium Co., India’s biggest alumina maker, plans to import as much as 150,000 metric tons of coal next mo ...
Friday, 13 March 09
VIETNAM APPROVES TWO COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS TO MEET DEMAND -THANHNIENNEWS
Thanhnien News reported that, The government has approved a proposal to build two 2,400-megawatt coal-fired power plants in the provinces of Nam Din ...
Friday, 13 March 09
INDONESIAN STATE-RUN COMPANIES PROFIT MAY FALL 10% THIS YEAR -THANHNIENNEWS
Tanhnien news reported that, Indonesian state-run companies’ profits may fall about 10 percent this year as commodity prices decline, cutting ...
Thursday, 12 March 09
INDONESIA'S CIREBON ELEC IN TALKS ON COAL SUPPLIES - REUTERS
Reuters reported that, Indonesia's PT Cirebon Electric Power, an independent power producer, is in talks with a number of coal suppliers to seek a ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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