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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Wednesday, 18 March 09
MANILA'S NAPOCOR SAYS BIDDING FOR 100,000T COAL FAILS - REUTERS
Top Philippine electricityproducer National Power Corp (Napocor) was unable to secure 100,000 tonnes of local coal for one of its power plantsfollow ...
Wednesday, 18 March 09
INDONESIA'S PLN APPOINTS KPC TO SUPPLY COAL - REUTERS
State electricity firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) appointed PT Kaltim Prima Coal to supply 1 million tonnes of coal per annum to Tanjung Jati B ...
Monday, 16 March 09
TATA POWER HAS NO PLAN TO SELL STAKE IN INDONESIA BUMI MINES - BLOOMBERG
Tata Power Co., India’s biggest electricity generator outside state control, said it has “no intention” to sell its stake in two I ...
Monday, 16 March 09
ANTAM SELECTS PARTNERS FOR POMALAA POWER PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk, Indonesia’s second-largest nickel producer, said it intended to develop a $300 million coal-fired plant in Pomalaa, Sout ...
Monday, 16 March 09
ADARO TO BOLSTER SUPPLY CHAIN THROUGH ACQUISITIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
PT Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia's second-largest coal producer, plans to acquire a coal barging and transshipment company to improve its supply chai ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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