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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Saturday, 09 May 09
CHINA PLANS TO BUILD COAL STOCKPILE BASES IN SHANDONG - BLOOMBERG
China, the world’s largest coal producer and consumer, plans to build stockpiles of the fuel in the eastern province of Shandong to ensure sup ...
Friday, 08 May 09
INDONESIAN STATE AUDIT BOARD COULD ONLY REACHED A SMALL NUMBER OF KP AND PKP2B - MAJALAHTAMBANG
THE LACK of personnel and the very limited time period have been the reasons why the 2nd semester of the special purpose audit for coal mining ...
Friday, 08 May 09
B.C.'S MINING INDUSTRY HIGH COAL PRICES TO RECORD 2008 PROFITS - PAGUNTAKA
AGGREGATE pre-tax earnings rose to $3.2 billion, the highest amount in the 41-year history of a PricewaterhouseCoppers survey.
B.C.’s minin ...
Thursday, 07 May 09
ASIA COAL-PRICES EASE TO NEAR $63 ON DEMAND CONCERNS - REUTERS
AUSTRALIAN thermal coal prices, a benchmark for Asia, edged lower to around $63 a tonne on concerns over demand, after hitting a two-week high of $6 ...
Thursday, 07 May 09
RICHARDS BAY COAL SHIPMENTS FALL MOST IN 9 MONTHS - BLOOMBERG
RICHARDS BAY Coal Terminal Ltd., Africa’s largest coal-export facility, said shipments fell 24 percent last month, the biggest drop in nine mo ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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