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Monday, 27 April 09
COAL PRICES ABOVE FUNDAMENTALS - STUFF.CO.NZ
Coal prices have defied the gravity of fundamental factors, supported by stockpiling prompted by cheaper prompt prices rather than a reflextion of actual demand, analysts say.
Prices in Europe are shrugging off oversupply and dire demand, traders said, although demand in China and India remained supportive.
The contango structure of low prompt prices and dearer forwards is shown in May coal cargoes delivered into Europe at around $60-$62 per tonne DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and cargoes for Q4 delivery around $72.00-$75.00, and for Calendar 2010 around $84.00, traders said.
"You could say about coal (and copper) that both could be priced up to 20 pct lower on fundamentals but it's not the case," said Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal prices are buoyed by the contango in the market and ignoring fundamentals."
Others in the market said the strength of the forward curve, as in the oil market, reflected a view of long term plays that looked to economic recovery next year, disregarding the threatening build up of actual supplies until then.
Utilities have been buying spot coal to put on stocks for consumption or re-sale later in the year. The cost of stocking coal in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is minimal compared with the contango in prices, they said.
"Current coal demand outside of Asia does not warrant FOB prices above $60/T but the market is trading off the contango," said Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We feel FOB prices need to fall to the low $50s/high $40s per tonne before production cuts happen to put the market into better balance," she said.
INFLEXIBLE PRODUCTION
Coal production, unlike oil, has not reacted to weak demand and oversupply. Global supply this year is likely to be little changed from 2008 levels and set to rise in several key exporting countries.
Russia, the world's highest-cost exporter may trim 5 million tonnes from total exports of around 65 million last year and some Russian producers are willing to sell at a loss to keep cash flowing.
"There are huge stocks of over 3 million tonnes in ARA and more and more cargoes are due to arrive. The market in Europe is awash with physical coal," another European utility source said.
"There are a few supply disruptions such as the Colombian rail strike but the loss of a few million tonnes won't change the supply/demand balance," he said.
Asian coal prices are several dollars a tonne higher than Europe due to stronger demand. This trend may continue and will provide some price support outside of Asia, traders said.
"Without China, in Q1 I am not sure where prices would have gone," a Singapore-based trader said. "China has certainly done a service to producers -- without China buying we would have seen much lower prices."
In the United States coal prices have dropped by around 25 percent this year, in the absence of any stock piling trend, traders said.
"The only stockable energy commodity is really coal," Francisco Blanch said. "China is using its dollars to buy into commodities such as coal and copper and that will help keep the Asian market strong."
Indian coal demand has been the most important factor supporting FOB South African coal prices. India accounted for nearly 4 million tonnes of the 15 million exported by South African in Jan-March
But Indian buying will soon halt from June-September because the monsoon season makes it all but impossible to discharge cargoes.
That could well cut $10.00 a tonne from coal prices, but if coal-power spread trading continues to dominate it could take much longer for fundamentals to return as the market's main driver, traders and producers said.
Utilities switch from coal-fired baseload generation to gas during spring and summer months when gas is cheaper. But this year utilities said their coal burn will be even lower because gas is significantly cheaper and power demand lower than last year.
"Utilities have been buying a few prompt cargoes for consumption to fill short positions but mostly we've all been buying forward coal to lock in the spread between coal and power, which has been very attractive," a source at a large European utility said.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2366184/Coal-prices-above-fundamentals
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Saturday, 09 May 09
CHINA PLANS TO BUILD COAL STOCKPILE BASES IN SHANDONG - BLOOMBERG
China, the world’s largest coal producer and consumer, plans to build stockpiles of the fuel in the eastern province of Shandong to ensure sup ...
Friday, 08 May 09
INDONESIAN STATE AUDIT BOARD COULD ONLY REACHED A SMALL NUMBER OF KP AND PKP2B - MAJALAHTAMBANG
THE LACK of personnel and the very limited time period have been the reasons why the 2nd semester of the special purpose audit for coal mining ...
Friday, 08 May 09
B.C.'S MINING INDUSTRY HIGH COAL PRICES TO RECORD 2008 PROFITS - PAGUNTAKA
AGGREGATE pre-tax earnings rose to $3.2 billion, the highest amount in the 41-year history of a PricewaterhouseCoppers survey.
B.C.’s minin ...
Thursday, 07 May 09
ASIA COAL-PRICES EASE TO NEAR $63 ON DEMAND CONCERNS - REUTERS
AUSTRALIAN thermal coal prices, a benchmark for Asia, edged lower to around $63 a tonne on concerns over demand, after hitting a two-week high of $6 ...
Thursday, 07 May 09
RICHARDS BAY COAL SHIPMENTS FALL MOST IN 9 MONTHS - BLOOMBERG
RICHARDS BAY Coal Terminal Ltd., Africa’s largest coal-export facility, said shipments fell 24 percent last month, the biggest drop in nine mo ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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