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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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