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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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