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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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