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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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