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Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS


A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.

The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding -6%, while the BPI fell 5%. The BSI was steady with a rise of 1.4%. However good cargo flow in the Atlantic pushed the Handysize index up 7.7% to reach 740 points. At $10,850, the Handy time charter average finished the week at its highest level since mid-June. In Russia, the government announced ambitious plans to spend nearly $600m on its grain ports, in order to increase capacity by as much as 67% over the next four years. The new investment is forecast to lift grain loading capacity to almost 42 million metric tons from 25 million tons this year. Spending would be focused on developing and adding terminals on the Baltic, Asov and Black Seas. One rail carrier estimated the improvements could increase the discount at which Russia can sell grain at international tender by $7 to $8 per ton.

Capesize
Declines that had perhaps been expected the previous week finally appeared this week, and the BCI lost 6% to finish at 3,136 points. The 4TC fell back to $26,601. In both runs this month, rates have risen to just under $29,000 before quickly retreating. A reduction in cargo movements was notable this week however, particularly towards end week as China began its holidays. With this in mind, we are unlikely to see any major improvements in the coming week.  It was a volatile week in the FFA market, but the overall trend was also down with October and Q4 contracts both losing around $1400 w-o-w. Period rates have not softened much however, and short-period was fixing at around $19,000 per day, while two 206,000 tonners (ex yard February 2012) were reported fixed for between 44-50 months at $18,000 per day less 5% commission. As expected, the BCI fell again slightly on Monday.

Panamax
Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins became tighter last week. The Indian Ocean market become stronger too with fresh cargoes released after monsoon. In the Atlantic, available open tonnage dropped significantly over the last week and the TA round voyage reached almost $15,000. On a voyage basis, USEC to Continent was in the $15.50 pmt range while USG to Continent was in the low $20s pmt with a bullish outlook.  Some charterers struggled to find the right candidates for trip from US Gulf/US east Coast to Continent. Ballasters expected from the east have not yet reached the area so open vessels in the zone have dropped by 60% in 15 days. Fronthaul rates remained relatively flat in the $22,500/$22,700 range. In the Pacific, open tonnage became tighter as well and dropped by 35% in 15 days. Rates seemed to have found a floor and hold relatively well, helped by the ballasters mentioned before. The Nopac round was around $10,500. Oversupply was absorbed by fresh cargoes put into the market by Chinese players before they went on holiday, which is a good reason to say that this week should be quiet. 

Supramax/Handy
The week closed at $15,678 for the BSI (up from $15,460 a week ago) and $10,850 for the BHSI (up from $10,194) in a very quiet note on the eve of long holidays in Asia. To date, the 2011 average for the BSI stands at $14,305, against $22,467 for the whole of 2010. Still down by a solid 36%! Overall, rates remained firm though with the notable exception of Handies in the south Atlantic where the quasi absence of sugar stems put heavy pressure on owners, and India where the iron ore stems are far from covering the number of ships open there - whether in EC India or WC India. As a consequence, ships continued to leave in ballast in the direction of South Africa, and further east to South America. Fronthaul for Supras reached in excess of $22,000 ex west Africa and low $30,000s from USG. Meanwhile $27,450 has been fixed by the 52,000 dwt Stella Maris for a trip USG to the Med. Pacific rounds remained steady in the mid $13,000s.
Source: Barry Rogliano Salles



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