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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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