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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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