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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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