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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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