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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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