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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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