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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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