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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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