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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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