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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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