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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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