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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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