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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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