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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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