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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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