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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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