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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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