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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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