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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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