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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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