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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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