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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
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