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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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