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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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