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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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